Post by account_disabled on Feb 20, 2024 0:33:07 GMT -8
When I interviewed you for the first time (september 2021) you assured me that equities were the safest asset... But, things have changed a lot in all this time... No. I don't change one bit. The stock market is the safest asset, we need to add the “long-term” predicate. In periods of 5 years you only lose money 12% of the time, in periods of 10 years, 5% and in periods of 20, none at all. In the stock market you have to be invested by concept, not by momentum. The stock market rewards perseverance (never selling) and perseverance (investing repeatedly). -he also mentioned at that time grifols as one of the disappointments that the portfolio had given him. Have you been surprised by what happened? Well yes, for this reason we managers have to be humble. We can be wrong either in the the Country Email List sis or in the period in which it can materialize. If we look at historical behavior of fed rate movements, I would opt for a calm in the rate reduction but 95% of the report was already known, the gotham report has not contributed anything new. But if you eliminate the gotham report, grifols has done everything it said at the time. Covid caused him an imbalance, he commented on it and indicated that this would be solved. But as warren buffett said, “you don't want to have a child in a month while impregnating nine women, everything takes time.” until before the report everything was going as planned, so gotham was an opportunistic report, launched just at the inflection point of grifols' profits, a report that wanted to modify stock market behavior in a deliberate way for an individual purpose. The report says nothing about the business, it does not indicate that the sales are false, that its clients do not exist, that it has lied about products. It doesn't say anything, it just interprets a financial aspect.
It is an opinion, not a fact, as the company has later proven. -by the way, were you still keeping it in your wallet? Yes, and we also invest more through derivatives. We asked ourselves: would anyone take over the business? And the answer was: yes, it is an oligopolistic business. Would another report come out now that would lower the price by another 50%? And the answer was: difficult, especially when gotham closed the entire position on the same day. -is the grifols thing difficult to solve? No, it's just a matter of time. At grifols they are working to solve it, the company has not come back to them and has worked, is working and will work to solve it. -if it were up to you, would you prohibit short positions again? No never. I am a supporter of short positions. It is the same as prohibiting long positions when there is a bubble. What I would prohibit is market manipulation. Given this report, what could have been done is to prohibit the listing until the company held a press conference. What happens in a year depends a lot on the psychology of the investor and not so much on the long-term future of the business. I am not opposed to exposing ideas, evaluations, on the contrary. It's like prohibiting warren buffett from writing his letter. I think this offers confidence to participants. One can first make his portfolio public, like the quarterly ones we present to the regulator, and then state the reason for your position. -do you like companies linked to artificial intelligence? They remind me of my beginnings, back in 2000.
When I went to a conference and everyone was talking about the wonders of the internet, I remember phrases like that in the future there will be no companies because all companies will be internet companies. And this is similar, it is an evolution, but no one yet knows how to draw the picture of the future. -have you included any in your portfolio? No. We do not know who the winner will be. But our 3d analysis allows us to take advantage of this trend, but in consolidated companies. Artificial intelligence requires large data centers (amazon, microsoft), with powerful machines (nvidia), which inside have components made with asml machines, increasingly smaller chips that will need atomic scale processes, like the one made asm international machines. Ai will enable new applications in everything, increasing demand for chips globally. So we prefer to go to companies within the sector, that are already consolidated, are already making profits and do not depend on whether the winner is one or the other, at much lower multiples than nvidia. -I don't know if you have followed the talgo soap opera… but what do you think is finally going to happen? No, the truth is that I have stayed away. I can contribute little. Interesting years are coming, with strong dispersion between large and small companies, with the end of the decade of zero rates, and with geopolitical wars for the world throne -finally, you told me that, since you started in the sector, every year you have given yourself a gift in the form of an investment.