Post by account_disabled on Feb 28, 2024 2:50:12 GMT -8
Almost a year after my last appearance , I return to the pages of Nueva Tribuna to write the epilogue of the story. Epilogue…? Yes, I know it sounds strange when the usual message is that we have never had a daily number of confirmed cases of infection as high as in recent days, but there is an explanation. I offer it below to interested readers. The divorce between incidence and mortality In the article I published on November 30, 2020 , I explained the great difficulty of following an epidemic caused by a respiratory virus based on the incidence of the infection; that is, counting cases one by one. table 1 pandemic Figure 1. Profile of the incidence curve of confirmed cases in Spain (composition made with graphs from official reports from the Ministry of Health). When the infection is mostly asymptomatic or presents with mild symptoms (a more or less intense cold), detecting a higher or lower percentage depends on the intensity of the search; That is, the number of diagnostic tests performed on people without symptoms or with very mild symptoms. Until the summer of 2020, very few were carried out in Spain, so the incidence recorded was basically that of people with pronounced or severe symptoms .
From then on, their number did not stop growing, which incorporated a much more important part of these people into the records, as new cases. The most pronounced effect of this new circumstance can be Malta Phone Number seen in the data from the last month, coinciding with the arrival of rapid tests for the detection of antigens that are freely available in pharmacies (or even distributed free of charge). table 2 pandemic Figure 2. Profile of the COVID-19 death curve in Spain (composition made with graphs from official reports from the Ministry of Health). A simple look at the death curve (figure 2) does not give us the answer with certainty, but it does guide a lot. The divorce between those curves at the ends of the graph is impressive. With very little room for doubt, the one observed in the spring of 2020 responds to that, but the one seen in the last weeks of 2021 could contain other additional factors.
Vaccination, reinfection and severe illness Complying with forecasts that seemed, by far, the most reasonable, the available vaccines have not proven capable of preventing infection or significantly preventing the vaccinated person who becomes infected from transmitting the virus to his or her contacts. Fortunately, it has been achieved that they are able to greatly reduce the risk of serious illness when infection occurs. Consequently, the very high incidence recorded in the first graph on the far right can be well compatible with the low mortality shown in the second by referring to the protective efficacy of vaccines, since the segment of the Spanish population most affected by deaths (the elderly 60 years old) was practically fully vaccinated, regardless of the frequency with which those vaccinated came to receive a booster dose. table 3 pandemic Figure.
From then on, their number did not stop growing, which incorporated a much more important part of these people into the records, as new cases. The most pronounced effect of this new circumstance can be Malta Phone Number seen in the data from the last month, coinciding with the arrival of rapid tests for the detection of antigens that are freely available in pharmacies (or even distributed free of charge). table 2 pandemic Figure 2. Profile of the COVID-19 death curve in Spain (composition made with graphs from official reports from the Ministry of Health). A simple look at the death curve (figure 2) does not give us the answer with certainty, but it does guide a lot. The divorce between those curves at the ends of the graph is impressive. With very little room for doubt, the one observed in the spring of 2020 responds to that, but the one seen in the last weeks of 2021 could contain other additional factors.
Vaccination, reinfection and severe illness Complying with forecasts that seemed, by far, the most reasonable, the available vaccines have not proven capable of preventing infection or significantly preventing the vaccinated person who becomes infected from transmitting the virus to his or her contacts. Fortunately, it has been achieved that they are able to greatly reduce the risk of serious illness when infection occurs. Consequently, the very high incidence recorded in the first graph on the far right can be well compatible with the low mortality shown in the second by referring to the protective efficacy of vaccines, since the segment of the Spanish population most affected by deaths (the elderly 60 years old) was practically fully vaccinated, regardless of the frequency with which those vaccinated came to receive a booster dose. table 3 pandemic Figure.